Baseball Betting Explained

Baseball Totals Explained Total The Total betting line is also referred to the Over/Under Total and in this example it is 8½ O -120. For you to win your wager the Total runs from both teams would have to be 9 runs or more. The payout odds of -120 odds means that for every $120 bet pays out $100. Baseball Team Totals Explained. OVER/UNDER Explained. A sports betting OVER/UNDER is a bet where you have to correctly predict the combined score of both teams. You have to pick if the total score will be lower or higher than the number set by oddsmakers – the people at betting sites who set the lines and odds.

The point spread is such a ubiquitous part of sports gambling that it has become fodder for pundits and fans who would never place a wager. “Notre Dame is giving up 6 points to USC,” someone might say. “I didn’t know that USC was looking that good this year.”

Instead of judging whether they think the numbers are correct or misguided, people are more likely to simply accept what Vegas has to say. The spread becomes just another prediction.

For lower-scoring sports, the point spreads will be low (often -1.5) but the odds on each side will be different, because it’s harder for a baseball, soccer or hockey team to win by multiple goals. For example, you could get paid +150 betting Yankees -1.5 against the Red Sox, and have to risk -200 for Red Sox +1.5 in that same game. Jun 13, 2020 Moneyline wagering is one of the simplest forms of baseball bets and also the most intuitive for any novice gambler to understand. The only barrier will likely be learning about odds and how the payouts can differ between favorites and underdogs. The most basic part of a moneyline bet is predicting which team will win. Sports betting revolves around placing a wager on the outcome of an upcoming game or event. Bettors attempt to forecast the results and make their best guess on what the outcome will be. Bettors typically wager with a sportsbook. Oddsmakers at the various books will set lines or odds for the available wagers.

Baseball wagering is unique in that there is no traditional point spread set for a ballgame. Instead, sportsbooks focus on run totals, the run line, and, most commonly, the money line (ML).

When you wager on the ML, you are picking who you think will win the contest outright. It doesn’t matter how many runs a team scores or how many runs they win by, they just need to score more than their opponent.

This, of course, comes with a catch. A sportsbook is not going to give the same odds to win between a division-leading team with their best starter on the mound and a team at the bottom of the division throwing a bottom-of-the-rotation pitcher.

Baseball betting explained

How to Read MLB Baseball Money Lines – Basic Explanation & Definition

Explained

What oddsmakers do in lieu of the point spread is to weigh the moneyline with heavier odds on the favorite. This is an example of what the numbers on a typical ballgame might look like:

  • Texas Rangers (-150)
  • Oakland A’s (+130)

The Rangers are projected to prevail. The favorite in the match-up will always be the negative (-) number, while the underdog is always positive (+), just like the numbers work with point spreads.

The easiest way to factor the risk vs reward is in terms of $100. In the example above, the (-150) means that you’d need to risk $150 to win $100 on the Texas Rangers. This means if the Rangers prevail, you will be paid $100 (plus your initial $150 investment), however, if the Rangers lose, you lose $150. You must increase the amount you risk on Texas because they are handicapped as the team most likely to take the game.

Baseball Betting Online

As for the A’s, at (+130), that number tells you that you can risk $100 to win $130 on them. A winning wager on Oakland gives you $130 (plus you’ll get back the $100 you bet), while a losing bet on the A’s would only cost you $100.

Learn About Baseball Line Prices: Dime Line vs 20 Cent Line

In the example above, and at most sportsbooks, you’ll have what is called a 20 cent line. All that this means is that the absolute value of the favorite price is 20 cents more than the underdog price (150 – 130 = 20). With reduced juice or dime line odds, you’ll get a 10 cent difference. On the very same game, a dime line book like 5Dimes would set the prices at -140 and +130 (140 – 130 = 10). This definitely gives you an edge simply because it takes away some of the built-in vig the book uses to calculate their odds. More on this to come.

Calculating Probability

When it comes to the money line can help to think in terms of probability. In other words, how likely is it that one team will beat the other? This is the foundation of baseball betting and is important to understand before really understanding the money line.

Convert Money Lines to Percentage

There are two formulas you will need to convert baseball betting lines into probability. The formula you use depends on whether the line is positive or negative.

Positive

Example: Money Line = +130

Negative

Example: Money Line = -150

Understanding Vig/Bookmaker Margin: Calculating the No-Vig Line

The astute bettor will notice right away that the probability on each side of an MLB game does not add up to 100%. This is because there is a built-in vig or edge for the bookmaker that helps them make their money. To get the true probability for each side of a game, you need to remove that edge.

Start by adding the two probabilities together. In our example, we had 43.5% + 60% = 103.5%; 103.5%. From the 103.5%, the 3.5% is the estimated vig on this pair of odds (some books do adjust differently on favorites versus underdogs, but we do not need to go into that in detail at this point). We can then take each percentage and divide it by the combined percentage to give us the true probability for each team.

In this matchup, the line tells you that in a fair (no vig) market the underdog has a 42% chance of winning and the favorite has a 58% of winning. This is relevant because as you start to make predictions, you will come up with your own probabilities for a matchup and compare them to the available odds to see whether or not your prediction has value based on these fair market odds.

How to Calculate MLB Baseball Moneylines for Betting Risk & Reward

If you aren’t betting exactly $100 per game, it’s easy to calculate your risk/reward by converting MLs to decimals and multiplying those numbers by your wager amount. A couple of examples:

  • If the ML is (-134) and you want to wager enough to collect $35 on that team, you must convert the ML to -1.34 and multiply by $35, which equals $46.90; the amount that is needed to risk on a favorite of -(134) to win $35.
  • If you’re looking to bet an underdog of (+172) and have $47 available for a wager, then calculate 1.72 x $47 = $80.25, which is the amount you could collect on a (+172) underdog with a $47 bet.

Using Major League Baseball Odds to Your Advantage

The great part about the ML is that when you bet on underdogs, you can decrease the percentage of games you need to pick correctly to show a profit. For example, if you wager on 100 games with an average line of (-130), you would need to score on 58% (58 of 100) of your bets just to turn a profit, betting $100 per game. You should be paid out $5,800, but lose $5,460 on these bets, giving you a total profit of $340.

Now, looking at a situation where you bet on mostly small underdogs, say an average line of (+115) over 100 bets, you would only need accuracy on about 47% of your picks (47 of 100) to show a profit. You should receive $5,405 in this case while losing $5,300, a profit of $105. Say you can up your winning percentage to 50% at an average money line of (+115). If you are able to do that, you should instead collect $5,750, while losing $5,000, a profit of $750.

Remember that pitching is still the ultimate factor in making your picks and predictions. But a club that recently won a low-scoring outing as a ‘dog is dangerous and almost never a bad wager. Once a team has proven it can small-ball grind its way to upsets of more talented clubs, they carry more value than a squad that got lucky with 5 homers against the Yankees.

Underdog Betting Equals Value In MLB Wagers

As you can see, winning bets on underdogs can add up quickly. Sportsbooks are, of course, well aware of this, but because most people lean toward favorites and not underdogs, they don’t really care. Like a grocery store putting its sweet snacks at toddler-eye level, the books know that some people are wise to their strategy – but enough of a % of shoppers won’t be. Don’t be taken advantage of. Take advantage!

There are few sure-fire handicapping systems that lead to sustained profit in any sport. NFL wagering, for instance, can be a supreme challenge due to its volatility and the sheer amount of action leveling out the lines. The NBA can be a bear due to “garbage time” and other factors that affect the Over/Under.

Not to say that a cash player can’t make money over time wagering on those sports, but when you find a system that is proven to work in a sport where lines can’t be adjusted too much (due to being set in the morning and paid off by night), then it’s never a bad idea to learn those tactics – even if you don’t always adhere to them.

The numbers above show that if managing to choose your picks on the diamond wisely and take as many high-value underdogs as you can, you will be well on your way to a profitable summer.

What is sports betting?

Sports betting revolves around placing a wager on the outcome of an upcoming game or event.

Bettors attempt to forecast the results and make their best guess on what the outcome will be.

Bettors typically wager with a sportsbook. Oddsmakers at the various books will set lines or odds for the available wagers.

Essentially, the odds show the likelihood of a particular event occurring. Also, they point to the potential return for those who bet successfully.

Sportsbooks offer a wide range of markets.

From major sports such as NFL betting and NBA betting to niche offerings such as cricket and rugby, you’ll find plenty of wagering opportunities available.

The same applies when it comes to bettingtypes.

The most standard wager merely involves choosing a winning side. However, there are plenty of other ways to bet and factors to consider.

Sports betting is a popular pastime that is attracting even more attention due to legalization in several US markets.

Why do people bet on sports?

The answer varies from person to person.

Some folks bet for entertainment purposes, while others wager based on the profit potential.

Plenty of bettors have their specific reasons. So, let’s take a look at some of the more common answers to the question:

  • Entertainment: Quite simply, betting on sports is fun. While games and events can be entertaining enough, adding a little money into the equation can enhance the enjoyment.
  • Profit Potential: If you’re correct on your bets, you’ll win money. Naturally, that applies in reverse, too. However, the chance to earn a profit keeps folks engaged and leaves them coming back for more.
  • The Challenge: While the concept of picking winners and losers is simple, continual success is far from a sure thing. Therein lies another part of what keeps folks so engaged. Sports betting is a mental challenge that can prove to be quite stimulating.
  • Skin in the Game: What’s the easiest way to make a random game or event that you have no rooting interest in that much more appealing? By having a little skin in the game on the outcome, you can suddenly have a contest to look forward to and enjoy.
  • Ease of Getting Started: In states that have fully legalized sports betting, getting started is a breeze. You can sign up with an online or mobile betting operator and be up and running in minutes. It was once a fantasy to have a sportsbook in your pocket. That’s now a reality.

There are plenty of other reasons why folks may choose to bet on sports, but the above list covers the primary ones. It’s a fun pastime that can be quite rewarding. Furthermore, the interest level will only continue to grow as more states legalize it.

Sports betting 101

So you’re new to sports betting and ready to get started. Now what?

Beginning any new endeavor can be overwhelming at first, but many times you’ll see it’s not all that tough once you start digging in. That’s certainly true with sports betting.

As with many other situations, it’s best to start with the basics and build out from there:

  • Benefits of Sports Betting: Legalized sports betting has been a boon for each of the states the industry has entered. A practice that was once illegal is now generating additional tax revenue. Furthermore, jobs have been and continue to be created in each new market.
  • Is Sports Betting Legal?: In May 2018, the US Supreme Court finally weighed in on a long-running case that questioned the legality of a federal ban on sports betting. The justices ruled that it was a matter for states to decide for themselves. Many of them have done just that and now have thriving sports betting industries.
  • How to Start Betting on Sports: It couldn’t be easier to get started betting on sports. Many operators are serving the legal markets, and signing up for an account with them is a snap. From there, you can add and remove funds from your account with ease and begin exploring opportunities.
  • The Mechanics of Sports Betting: One of the coolest things about sports betting is that you can get as advanced as you like at your pace. You can keep it simple and stick to the basics, or dive in with both feet to improve your skill level from the start. That’s ultimately up to you, and there’s no right or wrong approach. It comes down to a matter of what works best for you.
  • Understanding the Odds: This is an area that can confuse those new to the game. In a nutshell, odds tell you the implied probabilities and potential return for successful wagers. For a simplified example, negativeodds imply a favorite and less of return potential. While positiveodds point to an underdog and the potential for bigger returns.

For each of the categories, there’s a lot more to understand moving forward. As you advance, you can explore topics, such as the odds, in much more depth. Before long, those once foreign concepts will evolve into something you understand well.

Understanding types of bets

As you gain experience with sports betting, you’ll soon come to understand that there’s a lot more to it than picking winners and losers.

There are many ways to bet on sports, and each requires its own set of knowledge.

Here’s a look at the main types of bets you can place at sportsbooks.

Baseball Betting Explained
  • Moneyline: A moneyline bet is the most straightforward of all bets. You’re simply picking the winner of the game. Favorites are designated with negative odds such as -110, while underdogs typically have positive odds like +120.
  • Over/Unders: Also known as a totals bet, over/unders is a wager on the total points scored in a game. Oddsmakers set a benchmark number, and then you decide if you think the total will go “over” or “under” that number.
  • Prop Specials: A prop bet is essentially a side wager on something that may occur during a game. Examples include whether an NFL quarterback will throw for a certain amount of yards or not, or how many total points will be scored in a half of an NBA game.
  • Accumulators: An accumulator is a wager on four or more outcomes on a single ticket. For this bet to be a winner, all your selections must be correct. One wrong choice means that the accumulator bet is a loser.
  • Parlays: A parlay is a wager in which you choose two or more bets on a single ticket. All the wagers on your ticket must be correct to win. Parlays are popular wagers that are high-risk while offering the chance for higher returns.
  • If/Reverse: This type of bet is essentially a chain reaction. You place two or more bets together. If the first one is correct, then the second bet goes through as well. If the first bet is a loser, then the chain stops, and no additional bets are placed.
  • Pleasers: This is a wager on two or more games at the same time. You place a bet on odds that are more favorable toward the bookmaker but have a chance at greater returns if your bets are correct.
  • Futures/Outrights: A future or outright bet is a wager on an event that has yet to happen. For example, you can place a bet on the winner of the upcoming Masters Golf Tournament. Futures markets on popular sports such as the NFL can be quite active.
  • Point Spread: Point spread bets are most popular for sports such as the NFL or NBA. Oddsmakers will designate a margin of points that you must factor into the equation. To “coverthespread, favorites need to win by more than the margin, while underdogs cover when they keep the margin less than that.
  • Handicap: A handicap bet is similar to point spread betting. An additional margin is added to the equation, such as two goals in a hockey or soccer game. As opposed to betting on huge favorites, you can place bets on them with a handicap in exchange for more favorable odds.
  • Live Betting: Live betting is one of the most popular innovations the industry has seen in recent years. These are wagers you can place after the action has gotten underway. Markets will vary, and the odds move fast, which helps to enhance the appeal. For online and mobile operators, live betting has evolved from a niche offering to a must-have feature.

For those new to sports betting, it can be helpful to start with the simpler bets, such as moneylines and totals, before branching out into other areas.

As you gain experience and confidence in each area, you can add more options to the arsenal. You’ll be able to try them all eventually and determine which ones work best for you and your strategy.

Things to keep in mind

Sports betting can be extremely entertaining, and there’s also the chance to make a profit while doing something you enjoy. That’s a win-win scenario, but it’s also essential to go into it with a clearhead.

There’s always the possibility of hitting a big parlay you’re going to get rich with overnight. Sports betting is challenging and can be a grind, but that’s also part of the appeal.

Begin sports betting with realistic expectations and with a laser-like focus on being disciplined.

For those new to the game, you should consider the money you are wagering as part of your entertainment budget.

Only wager what you are comfortable betting and don’t exceed that amount. There will be plenty of time to increase your stakes as your skills improve, so there’s no need to rush it while you’re still learning.

Last but not least, remember that this is something you should find entertaining and enjoyable. If it stops feeling that way — or if you hit the inevitable losing streak — don’t be afraid to take a break.

Taking a step back and reflecting a bit will allow you to tweak your approach and strategy where needed. Taking a breather and gaining additional perspective can lead you to feel rejuvenated when you’re ready to play again.

How do sportsbooks make money?

Baseball Betting Lines Explained

Sportsbook operators are for-profit entities. As such, they’re not providing a betting marketplace out of the goodness of their hearts. The goal for them is the same as you: to makemoney.

Books that don’t accomplish that goal won’t be around too long. Oddsmakers who consistently take a beating will eventually be looking for a new line of work. That said, the overwhelming majority of established operators are really good at what they do.

They turn a profit as a result. So, how do they do that? Sportsbooks make money by the commissions they collect for taking action on bets. This is often referred to as the vig or juice.

Baseball Betting Explained Results

Let’s consider an example using a standard set of point spread odds of -110.

Baseball Betting Rules

  • You place a $100 bet at odds of -110.
  • If your bet is correct, you’ll get back $190.90, which is your $100% stake, plus a profit of $90.90.

So why didn’t you double your money? That’s because the bookmaker has essentially kept a percentage of the return for themselves. In addition, consider that the operator is also taking bets on both sides of the equation.

In a perfect world, they’ll receive even action on both sides. Half of the bets will win, while the other half will lose. The net of what they collect, minus what they pay out, represents profit.

Baseball Betting Explained

Of course, not all bets will attract even action, which is why you’ll see odds move after they are released. If the bookmaker’s liability on one side of an outcome becomes too great, they’ll make the odds a bit more favorable on the other side to attract more action.

Betting

Mistakes you should avoid

Whenever you are starting with something new, it’s essential to understand that there will be a learning curve.

Mistakes will happen along the way, but you can learn from each of them and improve your overall knowledge base.

When it comes to sports betting, you’re going to make mistakes. You’ll miss something that seems obvious in your handicapping in advance of the game. Or you’ll place a bet on odds that suddenly become a lot more favorable on the side you are leaning.

It’s all going to happen, and there’s no way to prevent every mistake. However, you can avoid many major pitfalls that could make your sports betting career short-lived.

  • Don’t Chase Your Losses: You’re going to lose some bets. Any sports bettor who tells you they win all the time is simply not being truthful. When losses happen, analyze why, suck it up and move on. Do not attempt to “get even” by doubling down because you’re “due for a win.” That can be a quick recipe for disaster.
  • Don’t Bet Over Your Head: It’s essential to have a crystal clear budget in mind for your sports betting bankroll. Only deposit what you can afford to lose, and resist the urge to go overboard when things aren’t going your way. If your weekly budget is gone, take that as an opportunity to take a break and get back to it with a clear head.
  • Don’t Be Unrealistic or Overestimate Your Skills: By nature, many sports fans are passionate. Some folks can take that to the extreme and feel as if they are always right and are destined to make tons of money betting. Don’t be that guy or gal. Know that you’ll have work to do regardless of your sports knowledge level, and also keep your profit goals reasonable.

Sports betting can be a great source of entertainment and a potentially profitable venture. However, the chances of both happening increase when you avoid the above pitfalls.